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The South-West monsoon rainfall not only brings relief to people from the summer heat, but is eagerly awaited by farmers. Their crop output depends on it, in a country where irrigation infrastructure is still pitiful, well into the 21st century. For them, the revised monsoon forecast is a dampener. The weather bureau (www.imd.gov.in) has revised its South-West monsoon forecast.
Continue ReadingIndian companies are struggling with a decline in demand which is affecting production, a fact visible in the December’08 quarter. If October’08 saw a marginal decline in industrial production after more than a decade of continuous growth, November’08 threatens to be worse. Investors should brace themselves for nasty surprises when the quarterly results are announced.
More evidence of the slowdown, not that anyone needs it. The Indian Railways play a key role in the transportation of certain petroleum products, cement and clinker, coal, iron ore and agricultural products. In FY08, volume traffic growth was high at 9% but FY09 has seen growth decelerate. In November’08, volume traffic is up by just 1.3% to 66.6mn tonnes and up by 6.5% to 534.6mn tonnes in the April-November period.
Continue ReadingThis is the third instalment of the weekend stimulus package. The government has lowered the cenvat rate by 4% across all rate slabs: 14%, 12% and 8%. The ad valorem duty on cars has been reduced to 20% from 24%, but it is still higher compared to the highest cenvat rate.
No one got this right. The pessimists said that India’s economic growth won’t last long, but it did. It even crossed the 10% GDP mark in a quarter. Then, the optimists said the Indian economy won’t slow down, but it has.
The week has begun on a somber note. The political developments in Delhi, with the Left exiting the UPA and the Samajwadi party making an entry, will mean some changes ahead, some of them could affect business. Then, on Friday, inflation inched ever so closer to 12%. This was not as much a surprise but a confirmation that high levels of inflation won’t go away in a hurry. Indeed, if RBI’s level of 5.5% is taken as a benchmark, we have a long way to go before we can relax.
India’s wholesale price index (WPI), the widely watched inflation number, moved up a notch to 11.42%. This is a provisional number and it would be safe to assume that the actual figure would be closer to 12% (WPI for week ended April 19 was revised to 8.23% from 7.57%).