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Inflation for the month of July shows a slight dip to 9.22%, compared to the 9.44% seen in the previous month. One could argue if a drop of one-fifth of a percentage point is significant, but lower inflation, however small the actual decline, is a good thing.
The government releases overall inflation data monthly, while primary inflation data (food and non-food) and fuel price behaviour is released on a weekly basis.
India’s goods traffic movement is a good lead indicator of how some core sectors are performing. Coal is shipped by rail. Steel plants transport ore and other raw materials to their plants, and transport finished steel back by rail. Other key commodities being transported by rail include fertilisers, foodgrains and crude oil. An increase in freight traffic either indicates higher demand for raw materials (coal is used by power and steel plants) or higher production because shipments are going up.
Industrial output for June 2009 is a bright spot amidst the gloom, caused by a near certain drought and a swine flu outbreak in the country. The index of industrial production (IIP) for June 2009 has increased by 7.8% over the same period last year. There was a partial base effect, as mining grew by 15% compared to a 0.1% growth in June 2008 and electricity grew by 8% compared to 2.6%.
A revival in industrial production is a healthy sign for the Indian economy, as it had turned negative in the recent past. With a question on agricultural output due to a late monsoon, it falls upon industry and services to contribute to the economy’s growth in 2009-10.
What:
Why:
India’s tax-gdp ratio has improved from 9.2% in 2003-04 to 11.5% in 2008-09. The government wishes to simplify the tax structure. A new direct tax code will be released for public comments within 45 days and the new code will be finalised during the winter session of parliament. A Goods and Services Tax to be introduced from April 2010, but will comprise of a Central GST and a State GST.
Direct Taxes
Individual
Today, the Railway Budget 2009-10 was presented by the railway minister Mamata Banerjee. It was her maiden budget and she left no stone unturned to announce populist schemes, the hallmark of every rail minister. When the times were mostly good, as in the previous government’s tenure, it didn’t pinch but in a slowing economy, it is undoing the strong position the railways made for itself in the past five years.